Tuesday, February 03, 2004
The only results in from New Mexico are absentee ballots, so the appearance of a three way race between Kerry, Dean, and Clark may be misleading. At any rate, it seems unlikely that Edwards will win there. (as I was writing this, the first of today's results came in and Kerry surged ahead)
The best possible result for Edwards is that he wins Oklahoma and South Carolina and Dean or Clark wins New Mexico. Clark, on the other hand, needs both Oklahoma and New Mexico. Kerry's dream is to steal New Mexico and for Clark to take Oklahoma.
I don't think Clark is a serious candidate, but if he takes two states he might make a move. Edwards is a good politician, but if he doesn't get Oklahoma he looks really regional. Right now, Edwards is down about 500 votes, so it looks like Oklahoma goes to Clark.
Dean took a whupping, but if he can steal New Mexico he has a shot to get back into the race. If he doesn't then he should throw his support to Sharpton.