!?

Zwichenzug

an in-between move

Cool kids read The Bellman.

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Don't read this blog!

I mean, thanks for dropping by my little corner of the blogospheric backwaters, but the blog you should be reading is The Bellman. The stuff I post there is much, much less likely to be imbued with dormitive powers.

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Zwischenzug
[German, from zwischen, intermediate + zug, move

n.
Literally an "in-between move". A move in a tactical sequence is called a zwischenzug* when it does not relate directly to the tactical motif in operation. |source|


image copyright TWIC

From this position, black played a zwischenzug: 19…d5
Adams-Kasparov
(Linares 2002, 1-0)

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about your blogger

David Rowland studies philosophy at the University of Illinois - Urbana / Champaign, where he's an active member of the Graduate Employees Organization. He used to play a lot of chess, but wasn't all that good. He has a blog. And email.

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recent

Speaking of fallacies
This makes me really mad...
University of Illinois news
Art
ad hominem
How cool is Andromeda?
Grocery strike news rundown
Zwichenzug culture watch
Get out your calculator
No real purpose to this post

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error log


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$zwichenzug$ sell-out zone

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syndication

Atom!



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Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under
a Creative Commons License.

Union Label


Direct Action
Gets the Goods!


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some folks I know

Mark Dilley
a daily dose of architecture
dailysoy
Hannah
funferal
Safety Neal
eripsa
January Girl
mimi jingcha
bleen
Rambleman
Washburn
Hop, Skip, Jump
E
ambivalent imbroglio
Brooke & Lian

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some blogs I read

strip mining for whimsy
It's Matt's World
School of Blog
Saheli
Fall of the State
Dru Blood
Echidne of the Snakes
Colossal Waste of Bandwidth
Running from the Thought Police
Bionic Octopus

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some philosoblogs

E.G.
Philosoraptor
Left2Right
Fake Barn Country
Freiheit und Wissen

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some labor blogs

Confined Space
Unions-Firms-Markets
Working Life
CGEU
Dispatches From the Trenches
Labor Blog
LaborProf
Eric Lee

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some A-list blogs

This Modern World
Discourse.net
Matthew Yglesias
pandagon
Andrew Sullivan
Political Animal
Majikthise
DeLong
The Volokh Conspiracy

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some other links

Rule 33
Dictionary.com
This Week in Chess
Baseball-Reference.com
War Nerd
National Priorities Project
Bible Gateway
Internet Archive
maxdesign
A Weekly Dose of Architecture
Orsinal: Morning Sunshine
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
NegativWorldWideWebland
Safety Sign Builder
Get Your War On

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some philosoblogging

Six views about reasons
Seidman on reflection and rationality
And another thing
Aspirin
Tiffany's argument for strong internalism
Internalism v. Externalism
What do internalists believe anyway?
Rationalism and internalism
The experimental method in philosophy
Advertising to children
On moral skepticism
A linguistic argument
Whorf
More on Williams
Williams on reasons
General and particular
Normativity and morality
Political intuitions
What it is, what it was, and what it shall be
Objectivity and morality
Thinking revolution
Factoid
Abortion and coercion
Moore on torture
On the phenomenology of deliberation
Even more Deliberation Day
more Deliberation Day
Deliberation Day run-down
He made a porch for the throne where he might judge, cont.
He made a porch for the throne where he might judge
Every shepherd is an abomination
Droppin' H-bombs
ad hominem

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

 

Fun with exit polls

Wisconsin (2238 respondents)

Edwards gets 36% of both men's and women's votes. Kerry gets 36% from men, but jumps to 41% among women. The pattern seems to be determined mostly by race, since Edwards polls two points higher among white women than among white men.

Kerry's support gets slightly stronger as the age of voters increases. Dean is strongest among the youngest voters, Edwards is weakest there.

Dean's support is pretty constant across racial lines. Kerry loses to Edwards by a point among whites, but beats Edwards by 39 points among African Americans and by 22 points among Latinos. (demographics: whites: 89%, african american: 6%, latino: 3%)

Kerry beats Edwards by 10 points among voters who earn less than $50,000, Edwards wins by two points among those who earn more.

Support for both Edwards and Dean increases with education level - though it's much more pronounced for Dean. Kerry does better among those with less education.

Kerry beats Edwards by six points in union households and by four points in veteran households.

Kerry beats Edwards by fifteen points among Democrats. Edwards carries the Republican and independent vote.

Kerry and Edwards both poll at 40% among moderates. Kerry wins the liberals, Edwards the conservatives.

Once again, Kerry wins the atheist vote, but this time by only three points. Catholics and Protestants vote for Kerry and Edwards in about equal numbers, but Kerry wins 'other Christians' by a whopping 15 points.

Edwards beats Kerry by 16 points among those who made up their minds in the last three days. Kerry wins by 29 points among those whose minds have been made up for awhile.

Kerry again wins big on 'can beat Bush.' Edwards beats Kerry 2 to 1 among those who are satisfied with the Bush administration, and beats Kerry 3 to 1 among those who are enthusiastic about the Bush administration.

Kerry and Edwards poll evenly among those who oppose gay marriage, whether or not this opposition is cashed out in terms of support for Civil Unions. Kerry beats Edwards by six points among those who favor gay marriage. Kucinich enjoys a six point bounce among those who favor gay marriage.

Edwards beats Kerry by 10 points among the 35% who support the war in Iraq. Kerry beats Edwards by 10 points among the 65% who oppose the war.

1% of respondents characterize the economy as excellent. Among those who think the economy is good, Edwards beats Kerry by 14 points. Kerry wins by three points among those who think the economy is not good and by 15 points among those who think the economy is poor.

Edwards beats Kerry by 2 to 1 among those who think the Bush tax cuts should not be repealed. They run about even among those who want to repeal tax cuts for the rich. Kerry wins among those who want all Bush tax cuts repealed.

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Crackerjack analysis:

Some people are trying to spin this as a Kerry loss since Dean+Edwards beats Kerry. Although Kerry does seem to be losing momentum, this strikes me as wishful thinking.

The idea that there's an anti-Kerry majority depends on the notion that Dean supporters will flock to Edwards if Dean drops out. I just don't see it.

To begin with, Wisconsin's open primary format makes the numbers look closer than they are. Edwards does well among constituencies that aren't likely to vote Democratic in November--war supporters, Republicans, and so on. Kerry beats Edwards soundly among women and minorities.

Other things being equal, conservatives prefer Edwards and liberals prefer Kerry. Dean's support is pretty evenly spread among conservatives and liberals, so you'd expect the conservatives to break for Edwards and the liberals to break for Kerry.

Things aren't equal, of course, because a sizeable number of Dean's supporters hate Kerry. So Dean's supporters will break for Edwards.

But they won't all go to Edwards, and they won't go 5 to 1 or even 3 to 1. Those are the kinds of numbers you need for an Edwards majority.


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